In October, after Tadej Pogačar metaphorically ripped the rainbow jersey off Mathieu van der Poel’s back at the World Championships, the Dutchman declared: “I have no idea how long ‘Pogacar era’ will last, he’s stronger than ever, this is just the beginning.” On that day in Zurich, Pogačar won solo after attacking with 100km to go, nearing the end of an historic season that consisted of a Giro-Tour double, a hat full of stage wins and other victories along the way, cementing his place as the greatest cyclist in the world.
In overall cycling terms, it is hard to argue with Van der Poel’s outlook — Pogačar is simply the best. However, where the Alpecin-Deceuninck rider can take heart is at the Monuments. At the biggest one-day races we are in the Pogačar-Van der Poel era. The pair have won 14 of the last 19 Monuments. In the first two of 2025 at Milan-Sanremo and the Tour of Flanders Van der Poel and Pogačar switched between finishing first and third, and were the two main protagonists of both races.
On Sunday at De Ronde, Pogačar was untouchable, riding away from the other favourites to claim his second title. Compared to Van der Poel, who grew up in the area, Pogačar is relatively inexperienced at the cobbled Classics. But this weekend he makes his hotly-anticipated debut at Paris-Roubaix, the next step on his quest to tick off all five of the Monuments. If he were to triumph at The Queen of the Classics, he would only need Milan-Sanremo to complete the set. These are two races Van der Poel has won more than once. What the Dutchman is missing is Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Il Lombardia, both successful playgrounds for Pogačar.
Before their showdown at the next Monument of the year, the Hell of the North, we take a look at their history — and future — at cycling’s biggest one-day races, the Monuments.
Read more: Tadej Pogačar vs Jonas Vingegaard: the stats behind the Tour's titanic rivalry
The race to claim the five Monuments is on
Winning all five of cycling’s Monuments — Milan-Sanremo, the Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Il Lombardia — is a rare feat, which has only been achieved three times in history, by the three Belgians Rik Van Looy, Eddy Merckx and Roger De Vlaeminck. The last rider to be close was also Belgian, Philippe Gilbert, who was only missing Sanremo from his palmarès when he retired in 2022.
Pogačar and Van der Poel’s Monument records are pretty similar to each other’s; both have won three of the five and have the best place finish of third in another. The two are not only the two most dominant Monument riders in the peloton but also the most consistent.
What would it take for Van der Poel to win Liège or Il Lombardia?
Remarkably, Van der Poel’s worst Monument finish in his career is 13th in Milan-Sanremo in 2020. When it comes to big one-day races, he is Mr Consistent, finishing all 20 Monuments he has started, winning seven, finishing on the podium in a further six for an average of fourth place across his entire career.
Having won Sanremo, Flanders and Roubaix, the Dutchman is only missing Liège and Lombardia — two races in which he has had top 10 finishes in the past. He certainly has the pedigree to win them, shown by his 2019 win at the Amstel Gold Race, but it would take a tweak in his programme to peak at the Ardennes Classics rather than his beloved cobbled Classics.
To be victorious at Lombardia, his season would require a second peak in October, but the presence of Pogačar and the likes of Remco Evenepoel at the more climb-intensive race is perhaps a leading factor in putting Van der Poel off Il Lombardia. Van der Poel, who perhaps has the best 30-second power-to-weight punch in the whole peloton, has shown he can follow Pogačar’s initial launch, but after numerous attacks, he eventually cracks, like on the third Oude Kwaremont on Sunday at Flanders.
Put simply, for Van der Poel to win Liège or Lombardia, he would need to peak for the races, adjust his training to adapt to the amount of climbing and crucially not be lining up against Pogačar.
What would it take for Pogačar to win Sanremo or Roubaix?
Pogacar’s Monument stats are even more impressive than Van der Poel’s — of the 16 Monuments he has finished, he has won eight, finished on the podium another three times and averaged 3.75th place. He does have one DNF on his report card, following a nasty crash at Liège-Bastogne-Liège in 2023.
The two Monuments Pogačar is missing are Sanremo and Roubaix. Given his track record at Sanremo is improving — in the last four editions he has come fifth, fourth, and third twice — it can be assumed he is more likely to win in Italy than on the cobbled roads of northern France. However, much to the world champion’s frustration, he has found La Classicissima unconquerable so far in his career due to it not being hard enough for him. The man who always seems able to follow his move? Van der Poel. Pogačar needs a hard race where he can repeatedly attack his opponents to chip away at their energy. Therefore, it is more likely that Pogačar can win Roubaix, where he has the opportunity to grind Van der Poel and the other contenders down more, though a lack of climbs may still prove a problem.
The biggest obstacle Pogačar and Van der Poel both face in completing the set is the other standing in their way. It seems, for either of the two to claim all five Monuments, they need the other to be absent at their respective challenges. However, this logic applies more to Van der Poel than to Pogačar. All it would take for Pogačar to win Sanremo is for Van der Poel not to be able to follow his attack on the Cipressa or the Poggio. Whereas for Van der Poel, if Pogačar wasn’t at Liège or Lombardia, he would still face the almighty challenge of beating Evenepoel, something, in Pogačar’s absence, he was unable to do at the Paris Olympic Games in 2024.
Currently, the two best Classics riders of their generation are locked on three out of five Monuments. However, given how Pogačar can seemingly adapt to all terrains, this could all change on Sunday at Roubaix, where he could add another Monument on his ever-expanding list of achievements.
