Date: Friday 23 August, 2024
Distance: 180.5km
Start location: Archidona
Finish location: Córdoba
Start time: 13:10 CEST
Finish time (approx): 17:20 CEST
In Roman times, when it was an important capital of the province of Hispania Baetica, Córdoba was the birthplace of the philosopher Seneca. Seneca was an important thinker in the development of stoicism, a school of thought that emphasises the importance of virtue in living a good life and that a wise person would, therefore, not be perturbed when faced with misfortunes beyond their control. He is said to have practised as he preached, too, remaining calm and unflustered when sentenced to forced suicide for his dubious involvement in a plot to assassinate Emperor Nero in a death that has been immortalised by painters such as Rubens and Jacques-Louis David.
The riders taking part in the Vuelta a España could learn a thing or two from Seneca. Of the many taking part, there can only ever be one winner every day, leaving over 150 defeated. A stoic attitude is necessary to process defeat and accept that victory most days is very unlikely and to keep coming back each day waiting for your moment in the spotlight. Not all of Seneca’s teachings will be useful, particularly the idea that virtue is all that is sufficient for happiness — you can’t afford to be so guileless when trying to outwit multiple rivals to win from a breakaway group.
Guile could be necessary to win today’s stage, which recent Vuelta history suggests could be unpredictable. The Alto del Catorce por Ciento climb tackled on stage seven on the run-in to Córdoba has featured in each of the last three stages to finish here, each time with a different outcome. Three years ago, a four-man group containing Romain Bardet went clear on the climb and were only brought back inside the final kilometre by a reduced bunch led over the finish line by Magnus Cort; 2014 was a much calmer affair, with John Degenkolb coming out on top in a bunch sprint; alternatively, in 2011, chaos reigned, as Vincenzo Nibali, a 21-year-old Peter Sagan and two of their Liquigas-Cannondale teammates launched a stunning team move on the descent to break clear from the peloton, Sagan claiming the first of what would become 16 Grand Tour stage victories.
This year, the balance is a little more in the sprinters' favour. Unlike in the last two stages here, the Alto del Catorce por Ciento will be the only climb of the whole stage, and compared to 2011, there’s a slightly longer run-in to the finish, with 26km between the top of the climb and the finish in Córdoba. The 14% maximum slopes of this climb are sure to see attacks go and dump some sprinters out the back of the peloton, but the more durable sprinters can be hopeful of competing for the stage win in a bunch finish.
Stage profile sourced via Vuelta website
Contenders
Two sprinters have had eyes on one another in a battle we expect to continue throughout this three-week race – Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike). They battled it out for the immediate sprint points on stage five, with no other riders joining the fight to the line. Van Aert and Groves were also too busy looking at one another later in the same stage that they let 21-year-old Pavel Bittner (Team DSM-Ferminch PostNL) slip by them to win the stage. All three have won a stage, but the Visma-Lease a Bike rider leads in the points classification, with Groves 13 points behind and Bittner 77.
What may give Groves and Bittner an advantage is that their teams are there to fully support them in the limited sprint opportunities. However, Van Aert and Visma have a general classification rider to also work for and this may take priority over stage wins. Nevertheless, they all boast a fast finish and the ability to get up and over challenging climbs, so we expect them to be in the final mix.
Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech) has had consistent results in the sprints, with a third-place podium and two sixth-place finishes. Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) also produced a fifth-place finish in Seville on stage five, so shouldn't be counted out in a race that lacks any major sprinters. He's a powerful rider and if he can stay with the group on the climb, he could be one to watch. Jhonatan Narváez (Ineos Grenadiers) is another rider who came within the top 10 in the last sprint opportunity. He is a strong climber too, and may chance an attack on the Alto del 14%.
Other riders in contention for the stage if it comes down to a sprint could be Arne Marit (Intermarché-Wanty) and Bryan Coquard (Cofidis). We could see attackers such as Andreas Kron (Lotto Dstny) and Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) take the opportunity, however.
Stage seven winners prediction
With the power of the green jersey, we think Wout van Aert will take his second stage win of the race.
