Much has been made lately of the struggles endured by the once mighty Ineos Grenadiers. There’s been a sense for a while that the big-budget British team has been in a sense of decline. It’s now been six years since they last won the Tour de France, and four years since a Grand Tour of any kind, while their overall win return last year of just 14 was the lowest in the team’s history. And things got worse in the second half of the season, when they went from early July to the end of the season winless, in what felt like a nadir for the team.
At long last, there’s good news to report, as the last two days have seen the team deliver two wins. On Monday, Michał Kwiatkowski came out on top at an entertaining Clásica Jaén in southern Spain, navigating the race’s tricky dirt roads and slipping clear off the front in an early break to eventually take a solo victory. Then less than 24 hours later, over in the Middle East, Josh Tarling triumphed in the stage two time trial of the UAE Tour, achieving the rare feat of finishing ahead of Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates).
These results followed the earlier success of Egan Bernal in Colombia, who pulled off the double of national road race and time trial champion, results that at last brought an end to their agonising seven-month drought without a win. With four wins to their name already this month, February is already the most prolific month the team has enjoyed since June last year, and there are still 10 days left to add to that tally.
So have Ineos Grenadiers at last turned a corner? It still feels very early to say. For one thing, the news these past two days hasn’t only been good — in fact, in terms of their long-term aspirations for the season, it might even be a net negative. Just as Kwiatkowski was riding to victory at Clásica Jaén, Egan Bernal was being taken to hospital after crashing further behind. It later transpired that he’d broken his collarbone. Not only did that put a damper on the emotional, feel-good story of his Colombian wins that has brought such joy to cycling fans around the world celebrating his return to winning ways, it also tempers Ineos’ hopes of what else he might be able to achieve this season. While it’s been many years since he was capable of competing for Grand Tour titles, he remains the team’s most illustrious and talented rider, who they are still hoping might be able to return to somewhere near that level. His results this month, and his performance on Sunday before the crash, suggests he was on the up, but will now be out of action for a while in yet another setback.
In what has been an eventful week for the team, there was more news in the morning on Monday when Geraint Thomas confirmed that he will retire at the end of the season. This had long been expected, but the official announcement highlights the team’s urgent need for renewal. Despite being 38 years old, Thomas has remained their best performer at Grand Tours for several years now, even since Bernal’s career-threatening crash three years ago. With him set to be gone for good, Ineos have a substantial hole to fill. 
In this sense, it’s Tarling’s victory in the UAE rather than Kwiatkowski’s in Spain that Ineos will perceive as the biggest boost. Like Thomas, Kwiatkowski is a veteran of the team’s glory years of the 2010s, and it’s mighty impressive that he too is still able to reach high enough standards to win a race as tough as Clásica Jaén, at the age of 34. But having ridden at elite level for over a decade, he can’t be expected to keep maintaining this level forever.
Tarling, by contrast, is at the other end of his career, and represents the team’s future. And his stage victory in the UAE marks another advancement in his career. Last year he confirmed his enormous potential with a series of very impressive time trials, but fell agonisingly short at the biggest races, missing out on medals at both the World Championships and Olympics by finishing fourth. By smashing the field at the UAE Tour’s time trial, with a ride a whole 13 seconds quicker than Stefan Bissegger (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) in second and 18 seconds quicker than Tadej Pogačar in third, Tarling might just have produced his best performance against the clock — and be ready to take on Remo Evenepoel (Soudal–Quick-Step) as the best time trialist in the world.
Tarling is poised to target some of the Classics this spring, joining the likes of Magnus Sheffield and new signing Bob Jungels to boost the team’s line-up for the cobbled racing. But what about the team’s real bread and butter — stage races? The early signs this year haven't been encouraging. The main GC rider in their squad, Carlos Rodríguez, could only manage sixth overall at his first appearance of the season, at Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana where he and teammate Thymen Arensman were notably off the pace set by rival teams Bahrain-Victorious (through winner Santiago Buitrago and Pello Bilbao in third) and UAE Team Emirates (João Almeida in second, Brandon McNulty in fifth). It’s results like these that will make Bernal’s absence such a loss, and why they’ll be desperate that he can indeed return to his best.
Still, the recent wins will have changed the mood within the team, and give optimism of success in races to come. Rodríguez has made a more promising start to the UAE Tour by finishing 14th in the time trial won by Tarling, and will hope to set up a GC challenge on the upcoming summit finish at Jebel Jais. Thomas and Arensman give them GC prospects at the Volta ao Algarve that starts tomorrow, and Filippo Ganna the chance of stage wins. Tarling and Kwiatkowski’s form gives them hope for their next big targets, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Strade Bianche respectively. And new signing Caleb Ewan is set to make his bow for the team at Settimana Internazionale Coppi e Bartali, where it’s hoped the Australian can begin delivering the team a steady stream of sprint victories. These past two days might yet be remembered as a pivotal moment in Ineos’ history, if not towards a return to their glory days, then at least to them being serial winners once more.
