The first leg of Holy Week, the Tour of Flanders, is done and dusted and now the cycling world turns its focus to the Queen of the Classics, Paris-Roubaix. On Sunday April 13, the peloton will race 259km from Compiègne to Roubaix, tackling 30 cobbled sectors totaling 55.3 kilometres. Unlike Flanders, which is the culmination of weeks of Flemish Classics, often raced on the same climbs, Roubaix is unique — there is no other race with its quantity of cobbled kilometres. Moreover, the severity of Roubaix’s cobble sectors are incomparable and unparalleled, resulting in chaotic racing with riders abandoning or missing the time cut due to bad luck, mechanicals, crashes or sheer exhaustion.
With the debut of three-time Tour de France winner Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), this year’s edition is perhaps the most intriguing in years. After storming to his second De Ronde title, the world champion can no longer be seen as a GC rider who can compete at the cobbled Classics — he is now the favourite for the pavé races. Victory on the velodrome at Roubaix, would be another step en route to winning all five of cycling’s Monuments, a path that is becoming increasingly unimpeded for the Slovenian.
On Sunday he will line up against the traditional cobbled Classics riders, like defending champion Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Wout van Aert (Team Visma-Lease a Bike) and Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek). Pogačar got the better of all of them at Flanders, but the Hell of the North poses a different kind of challenge and a number of riders will fancy their chances of claiming their own cobblestone, awarded to the winner of each edition since 1977.
Paris-Roubaix 2025 contenders
Tadej Pogačar
Pogačar appears completely unfazed by the cobbles, both the physical challenge the pavé poses but also the pressure cooker atmosphere — his calm demeanour is in sharp contrast to the chaos and turmoil of the Spring Classics. He is not under the same duress from the Flemish media compared to Wout van Aert at the cobbled Classics and Remco Evenepoel at the Ardennes. On the cobbles, he is simultaneously an outsider and also a natural, and now the favourite — albeit a favourite who wears the tag lightly.
But he faces his sternest cobbled test on Sunday. Pogačar is significantly lighter than his main rivals, so his power-to-weight ratio is superior, which plays to his advantage at races like Flanders where he could use every ascent to make his opponents suffer. However, Roubaix is flat, making it harder for Pogačar to drop his rivals, who although heavier than him, are more powerful. All logic would suggest a smaller rider cannot compete over the cobblestone watt-test of Roubaix, but as all his rivals know, the world champion has defied logic in the past.
Mathieu van der Poel
After Frenchman Octave Lapize (1909-1911) and Italian Francesco Moser (1978-1980), the defending champion is looking to become only the third rider in history to win three consecutive Paris-Roubaix titles. Last year, Van der Poel launched a long-range attack with around 60km to go to win by 3 minutes. Second place that day, for the second year running, was his Alpecin-Deceuninck teammate Jasper Philipsen, resulting in a hugely impressive performance from the Belgian team, in what was a dominant Classics campaign including Monument wins at Milan-Sanremo, Flanders and Roubaix.
The team have not quite enjoyed the same success this year, but still have significant results thanks to the Dutchman’s “special” win at Sanremo, Philipsen’s Opening Weekend victory at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, and Van der Poel’s third place at Flanders. Despite his disappointment of missing out on a record-breaking fourth win at Flanders, the back-to-back Roubaix champion, Van der Poel starts as a favourite for obvious reasons. If he can hold onto the inevitable attacks from Pogačar, we could be treated to a spectacular finale like the one at Sanremo.
Wout van Aert
Before Flanders, following a quiet and winless Classics campaign so far and a shambolic three-man loss to Neilson Powless at Dwars door Vlaanderen, there was not much to cheer about even for the most devout Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) fans. However, after Van Aert’s impressive performance on Sunday, the mood in the Visma camp — and the Flemish press — is much more upbeat for Roubaix. Van Aert was not quite able to follow the blistering attacks from Pogačar on the climbs of Flanders, but on the flat his sub-threshold power was remarkable, often fighting back to the front of the race.
Given he will not be facing the same uphill challenges at Roubaix compared to Flanders, this year could present a chance for Van Aert to break his spell of bad luck at the race. He can also rely on a strong team presence with Matteo Jorgenson and Tiesj Benoot, who featured long into the race at Flanders. What will be even more pleasing is that he was perhaps the strongest of the chase group, leading the whole way up the final Oude Kwaremont ascent in pursuit of Pogačar. In another attritional race like Roubaix, Van Aert may just have all the ingredients to take home victory.
Mads Pedersen
Another traditional Classics rider who will be looking forward to another battle over the cobbles is Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek). With three podium finishes at Flanders and a number of top fives at Roubaix, Pedersen is the best one-day rider to not have a Monument title to his name. At Flanders, he combined well with his teammate Jasper Stuyven, but there were points where Pedersen worked with Van der Poel and Pogačar when his teammate was in a group behind. If he can hold off working with them, he can keep some powder dry, which is vitally important in a Monument-length race.
Lidl-Trek will be hoping that they can replicate a similar performance with the two riders on Sunday and have a numerical advantage over the likes of Van der Poel and Pogačar. If Stuyven attacks and Pedersen sits on and saves energy, he could hold on to the top favourites to the finish, and if he were to do so, he would be the favourite to take victory in a sprint on the famous concrete velodrome.
Filippo Ganna
Like Van Aert, Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) is better suited to the flat power tests over the cobbles at the Hell of the North than the punchy climbs at Flanders. The Italian has been in strong form this season, coming an impressive second at Sanremo against what he described as “the two gods of cycling” Van der Poel and Pogačar, third at E3 and a career-best of eighth at Flanders.
At De Ronde, he anticipated by getting into an earlier move before the big favourites attacked, and although he was unable to hold onto them when they passed, he can take heart in a performance at a race that doesn’t necessarily suit his attributes. Roubaix on the other hand should play to his advantage — the time trial specialist, who has been developing into a strong Classics rider with a big sprint, already has a career best of sixth at the race and will be hoping to break onto the podium at this year’s edition.
Jasper Philipsen
For the past two editions of Roubaix, Alpecin-Deceuninck’s sprinter has entered the Roubaix velodrome behind his solo teammate Van der Poel, and bested the other contenders to claim the second step on the podium. In doing so, he demonstrated himself to be the most versatile sprinter in the peloton, capable of surviving 260km worth of Monument racing. He has also had the advantage of having Van der Poel ahead, meaning he didn’t need to pull on the front of the chase group. If Alpecin-Deceuninck can manufacture a similar scenario, they may well get the better of the Pogačar, who is unlikely to have teammates around him in the last 50km. Philipsen would be the favourite to win a sprint against almost anyone at the finish of Roubaix.
Other contenders
The aforementioned Jasper Stuyven is in shape to make it far into the race to the velodrome in Roubaix. Although he is likely to be working for his leader, Pedersen, the 2021 Milan-Sanremo winner, like at Flanders, could break into the top five and perhaps better if circumstances permitted. Another outsider, Stefan Küng (Groupama - FDJ) looked like one of the next best riders outside the top five group at De Ronde. Likewise, Tiesj Benoot and Matteo Jorgenson will be working for Van Aert, but both were impressive at Flanders and, like Stuyven, may feature high up if certain race scenarios dictate that they are allowed up the road.
Sprinters like Tim Merlier (Soudal–Quick-Step), Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché - Wanty) and Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) will want to follow in the footsteps of two-time podium finisher Philipsen in surviving the cobbles for a top result on the Roubaix velodrome. Davide Ballerini (XDS Astana Team) and Iván García Cortina (Movistar Team) have worked themselves into impressive shape and, with some measured racing, both claimed top 10 spots at De Ronde. Ballerini’s teammate Mike Teunissen has quietly had a successful Spring Classics campaign so far, with top 15 finishes at Milan-Sanremo, E3 and Flanders. Roubaix arguably represents the 2019 Tour de France stage winner's best chance at a top 10.
Riders looking to make amends after disappointing results at Flanders will be Matteo Trentin (Tudor Pro Cycling Team), Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost), and Michael Matthews (Team Jayco Alula), who all came home in the big group 2:19 behind Pogačar.
Prediction
Given the lack of hills and the chance that Pogačar will likely be isolated in the final 50km, we think Wout van Aert, who appeared to be getting stronger the longer Flanders went on, will win Paris-Roubaix on Sunday.
