For the last three seasons, Il Lombardia has been Tadej Pogačar’s race. The UAE Team Emirates rider relishes the steep, punchy climbs around the Lombardy region of Italy, attacking them in his trademark, swashbuckling style with the kind of panache that his rivals can rarely answer to. This Saturday, the 118th edition of Il Lombardia will be held – the fifth of cycling’s five Monuments – and Pogačar, resplendent in his new rainbow bands, is looking stronger than ever. With his recent solo victory in Giro dell'Emilia, a key warm-up race for Lombardia, the likes of Remco Evenepoel and Enric Mas will be scratching their heads when it comes to working out how to beat the world champion.
Route
In 2024, the Il Lombardia route will be switched from back-to-front, with the 252 kilometre course being raced from Bergamo to Como as it was in 2020 and 2022. This change in direction hasn’t made the race any easier, however, with an accumulated total of 4,800 metres of climbing. Nicknamed ‘The Race of the Falling Leaves’ due to its autumn placement in the calendar, the weather could also play a crucial role in deciding the winner of Lombardia this weekend – earlier this week, Coppa Bernocchi was cancelled due to excess rainfall in Italy.
The climbing in Il Lombardia begins early, with the Forcellino di Bianzano as the opening ascent of the day. While this climb is relatively gentle, spanning 6.3 kilometres at an average gradient of 5.1%, it’s immediately followed by the more challenging Passo di Ganda, which is 9.2 kilometres at 7.3%. Two more climbs follow in quick succession before the riders are granted some respite in a flat middle section of the course. At this point, it’s likely that the breakaway of the day will have established itself.
Riders will race alongside the shores of a glittering Lake Como before turning inland as they reach the town of Onno where they begin climbing again. The iconic Madonna del Ghisallo follows, but the peloton will not approach it from their usual ascent from Bellagio, instead taking on an easier side which spans 6.3 kilometres at 4.1%. After another flat section alongside Lake Como, the riders hit the Colma di Sormano – one of the most challenging climbs of the race. There are ten hairpin bends in the first 4.5 kilometres, with the full ascent adding up to 12.9 kilometres, while the average gradient sits at 6.4%. The last kilometre ramps up to 9.1%.
When the peloton crests the Sormano there are 42 kilometres of the race remaining, the majority of which is flat or rolling. This means that the likes of Pogačar will need to try and break away from the peloton on or before the Sormano, as the only remaining climbs on the profile after that point are a 2.1 kilometre climb at 3.4% and a 2.7 kilometre climb at 7.2% to San Fermo della Battaglia, which might not be enough to make a difference. The final kilometres are comprised of four kilometres down hill before a flat finishing straight of 1.3 kilometres.
Contenders
After his exploits this season, it’s almost impossible to imagine an outcome on Saturday where Tadej Pogačar doesn’t take a fourth win in Il Lombardia this year. He has dominated the recent history of the race, taking victory in sprints against Fausto Masnada and Enric Mas in 2021 and 2022, before winning with a 31-kilometre solo attack last season. Should Pogačar stand on the top step of the podium again this weekend, he will be level on Lombardia victories with Alfredo Binda's quartet of wins, just one short of all-time record holder Fausto Coppi. His performances at the World Championships in Zurich where he rode the entire peloton off his back wheel on the steep Swiss climbs, followed up by his first win in rainbows at Giro dell'Emilia, are proof that the UAE Team Emirates rider is certainly not struggling with end of season fatigue.
Although it hasn’t seemed to impact him so far, Pogačar will have to battle the so-called ‘curse of the rainbow jersey’ throughout the next year, meaning he will be heavily marked by his rivals who will be keenly watching for his attack in Il Lombardia. Chief among them will be Soudal–Quick-Step’s Remco Evenepoel, who finished ninth in last year’s edition of this race. Evenepoel is, in theory, well-suited to the punchy route of the Italian Classic, though he was unable to challenge Pogačar at the Worlds and abandoned the Giro dell'Emilia. The Belgian has an undeniably complicated relationship with Lombardia after crashing badly in the race in 2020 and suffering a broken pelvis, then crashing again in the opening kilometres of 2023’s edition. However, Evenepoel will be motivated to finish his successful 2024 season on a high and will aim to put any bad experiences at Lombardia behind him this weekend.
While perhaps more of an outside bet than Grand Tour champions like Pogačar and Evenepoel, Enric Mas of Movistar is also a serious contender for Il Lombardia. The Spanish rider has somewhat transformed into a promising one-day racer in recent seasons, unafraid to attack and able to follow explosive moves on steep climbs, proven by his recent top-10 finishes at both the Worlds and Giro dell'Emilia. Mas was able to finish in second place in Il Lombardia in 2022, which is proof that the terrain does suit him.
Another rider who is looking to come into some good form as the end of the season approaches is the Ineos Grenadiers’ Tom Pidcock. The British rider impressed with his second place finish in a tough, wet and windy edition of Giro dell'Emilia – the best of the rest behind a flying Pogačar. It’s Pidcock’s Il Lombardia debut this weekend, but his success in the similarly hilly Ardennes Classics, – including a victory in Amstel Gold Race and second last year in Liège-Bastogne-Liège – show that he is adept at racing on this sort of terrain. His technical skills on narrow roads and windy descents will also play to his favour on Saturday, though facing up against the powerhouse teams of Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe and UAE Team Emirates could be a tall order for the 25-year-old.
Although unlikely, should Pogačar suffer a mishap or not be in top form on Saturday, UAE do have a solid back-up option in Adam Yates. The Brit has competed eight times in Il Lombardia (taking third in 2021 and sixth last year), so is familiar with the terrain. He’s had a good season with victories in the Tour de Suisse overall and a stage of the Vuelta a España, as well as helping Pogačar to his third Tour de France triumph. Soudal–Quick-Step similarly have a ‘plan B’ option with Julian Alaphilippe, who once would have been a standout favourite for a race like this. However, injuries and crashes have meant another turbulent season for the Frenchman, so his form is relatively unknown. With his contract at the Belgian team ending imminently though, Alaphlippe will want to put in a good final dance at Soudal–Quick-Step, whether that be in helping Evenepoel or going for his own results.
Other riders to keep in mind on Saturday are Matteo Jorgenson of Visma-Lease a Bike (Paris-Nice and Dwars door Vlaanderen winner), Bauke Mollema of Lidl-Trek (who won Il Lombardia five years ago), and perhaps Marc Hirschi, who is another option for UAE Team Emirates after a solid win in Coppa Agostoni a few weeks ago.
Prediction
Despite a strong field lining up for the final Monument of the 2024 season, we think that world champion Tadej Pogačar will be unbeatable, rounding out a fairytale year with another win for UAE Team Emirates at Il Lombardia.
