The countdown has begun. There are just under four months to go until the main event of the cycling season, when the best riders in the world will line up for the race which matters the most to their teams, sponsors and the sport’s major stakeholders. For the favourites who are in with a shot at winning the yellow jersey, preparation for the Tour de France would have started almost as soon as last year’s race concluded with Tadej Pogačar’s dominant victory. Now, as we move into these next 110 days leading up to the La Grande Boucle, the final phase of that preparation is underway. Shorter stage races are beginning to steadily paint a clearer picture of who will be in contention for the podium in Paris this summer. It’s looking very good for some, but there’s a long road filled with hard work ahead for others.
To state the blindingly obvious, one person who will have very few worries when it comes to his current form and chances of defending his Tour de France title is Pogačar himself. The UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider has had a stunning start to the season, winning the UAE Tour with apparent ease, then executing a heroic ride at Strade Bianche where he won solo despite his spectacular crash with 50 kilometres of the race remaining. When it comes to the Slovenian world champion, there’s no doubt he is the man to beat at this year’s Tour – if he makes it to the Grand Départ in Lille healthy and without injury, it’s going to be a tall order for anyone to stop Pogačar winning his fourth yellow jersey. The recent performances of his key super-domestique João Almeida at Paris-Nice are also promising signs that Pogačar will be well supported in his pursuit of Tour success too.
Tadej Pogačar wins Strade Bianche 2025 (Image: James Startt)
But what of his longtime rival and twice Tour de France winner Jonas Vingegaard? The Visma-Lease a Bike rider is one of the few riders in the current peloton who has been able to pose a challenge to Pogačar during a three-week Grand Tour over the years, even beating him in 2022 and 2023. For Vingegaard, however, the opening to his 2025 season has not been quite so seamless. There were question marks over his form at the Volta ao Algarve when he finished sixth on the queen stage to Alto da Foia and concerns regarding his lack of support on the climbs during that race. The Danish rider’s performance in the final time trial saw him take the overall general classification in Portugal, but he didn’t do so with the domineering style we’ve seen from him in other years.
Read more: Tadej Pogačar vs Jonas Vingegaard: the stats behind the Tour's titanic rivalry
At Paris-Nice a few weeks later, things didn’t go smoothly for Vingegaard either – he was outsprinted by Almeida uphill on stage four, then didn’t start on stage six following a heavy crash the day before. He sustained an injury to his hand and complained of feeling dizzy during the stage, though is still set to start in Volta a Catalunya as his third stage race of the season. This will give us another look at Vingegaard’s form, but it’s certainly not been the season-opening he would have hoped for.
From the perspective of Visma-Lease a Bike, however, all is far from lost when it comes to putting a strong team into the Tour de France this year. Even if Vingegaard doesn’t return to his old form, Paris-Nice winner Matteo Jorgenson is a formidable backup plan for the Dutch team. While he didn’t have to face Pogačar in France last week, Jorgenson still had to protect himself from attacks thrown at him by riders like Almeida and Florian Lipowitz and he was impressed with his calm consistency, as well as his ability to excel on such varied terrain. The American rider has been vocal about his focus on the spring Classics, so he’s in a different phase of form compared to those peaking for the Tour, but he’s forced Visma-Lease a Bike to consider him as a serious backup plan depending on Vingegaard's form come July.
Matteo Jorgenson wins Paris-Nice 2025 (Image: A.S.O/Billy Ceusters)
The Tour is, of course, a race between more than just UAE Team Emirates-XRG and Visma-Lease a Bike. While these two outfits have the stand-out favourites in their rosters, riders like Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and Remco Evenepoel (Soudal–Quick-Step) are also worthy of consideration for the coveted Tour de France title. The Belgian rider finished third at the Tour de France last season, the best of the rest behind Pogačar and Vingegaard. He followed this up with two Olympic gold medals, rainbow bands in the World Championship time trial and second at Il Lombardia to close out his best-ever season (and one of the most impressive in cycling’s history.) However, Evenepoel is yet to race in 2025 after a training crash and isn’t scheduled to begin his season until De Brabantse Pijl in another month. Will this late start to the year hamper his Tour form? Or could a measured approach pay dividends when it comes to both physical and mental freshness?
There are questions, too, over the form of Roglič. He raced in Algarve a few weeks ago against Vingegaard and didn’t exhibit the form of a Tour de France contender when you compare him to Pogačar, but the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider has proven time and again that he should never be counted out. Roglič also has, however, been vocal about wanting to target the Giro d’Italia this year (he took the pink jersey in the 2023 edition of the race) which will mean less of a focus on being in-form for the Tour. On paper, riding the Giro to try and win pink just before the Tour won't have a positive effect on his French campaign, but there’s also an argument that a new approach is exactly what Roglič needs to get back to his best. The 35-year-old hasn’t been considered a real contender for the yellow jersey against Vingegaard and Pogačar for some time now, so perhaps a less conventional attempt at tackling the Tour will yield better results.
The seven-stage Volta a Catalunya which starts in just one weeks’ time should give us more of an idea when it comes to Roglič and Vingegaard’s current prospects, if both riders take to the start. After that, it won’t be until the Critérium du Dauphiné in June that we see Pogačar back to stage racing after his busy Classics campaign. If all goes to plan, the Dauphiné should see Evenepoel and Vingegaard face off against the world champion, and by then, it will be much easier to predict the 2025 Tour winner.
As things stand, however, it’s still extremely difficult to look past Pogačar adding yet another yellow jumper to his already packed wardrobe of leader’s jerseys. There’s still time for it to all change, but there’s no avoiding that his main competitors have not had the start to the season they would have dreamed of. Jorgenson’s Paris-Nice win will have given Visma confidence, though the American rider is yet to prove himself against the crème de la crème of general classification riders. In the race to the start line in Lille, UAE Team Emirates-XRG are leading the charge, and it’s a fight between Pogačar’s injured and recovering competitors to catch up in time.
Cover image: A.S.O/Billy Ceusters
